Free State ResearchTracker
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate 1,099,896 votes · 96% of expected · 4168/4168 precincts |
51.0% Hamilton 561,143 |
46.0% Marshall 505,558 |
Hamilton +5.1 Kansas Secretary of State, 11/06 18:32 CT |
| Governor 1,094,842 votes · 95% of expected · 4168/4168 precincts |
50.3% Holscher 551,243 |
49.7% Masterson 543,599 |
Holscher +0.7 Kansas Secretary of State, 11/06 18:32 CT |
| Attorney General 1,092,050 votes · 95% of expected · 4168/4168 precincts |
50.6% Mann 552,753 |
49.4% Kobach 539,297 |
Mann +1.2 Kansas Secretary of State, 11/06 18:32 CT |
| Secretary of State 1,086,329 votes · 94% of expected · 4168/4168 precincts |
47.5% Day 515,738 |
48.3% Proctor 524,555 |
Proctor +0.8 Kansas Secretary of State, 11/06 18:32 CT |
Unofficial counts as county election officials report them; provisional ballots come later, in the county canvass. Each race shows whichever public source has counted more votes. "Expected" is our turnout estimate of 1,150,000 ballots.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate 9 polls |
49.1% Hamilton | 45.5% Marshall |
Hamilton +3.7 independent: Hamilton +4.2 |
| Governor 8 polls |
47.7% Holscher | 48.0% Masterson |
Masterson +0.3 independent: Holscher +0.1 |
| Attorney General 2 polls |
50.0% Mann | 44.2% Kobach |
Mann +5.8 |
| Secretary of State 1 poll |
one poll in these weeks, so no average | ||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate Graham (L) 3.0% |
50% Hamilton 566,000 |
47% Marshall 532,000 |
Hamilton +3 34,000 votes |
| Governor | 49.5% Holscher 563,000 |
50.5% Masterson 574,000 |
Masterson +1 11,000 votes |
| Attorney General set by turnout |
50–51% Mann 562,000–574,000 |
49–50% Kobach 551,000–562,000 |
Even to Mann +2 0–23,000 votes |
| Finished | Pollster | Sen. | Gov. | AG | SoS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 1 | Survey 160 1,267 likely voters |
D+6 | · | · | · |
| Nov. 1 | New York Times/Siena 736 likely voters |
D+5 | D+1 | · | · |
| Oct. 29 | YouGov 2,092 likely voters |
D+1 | R+1 | · | · |
| Oct. 28 | Emerson College 800 likely voters |
D+3.5 | R+4 | · | · |
| Oct. 26 | Washington Post-Schar School 801 likely voters |
D+9 | D+6 | · | · |
| Oct. 26 | CNN/SSRS 838 likely voters |
D+4 | R+5 | · | · |
| Oct. 24 | Free State Research (ours, wave 3) 639 likely voters |
D+6.2 | D+3.3 | D+7.7 | D+0.2 |
| Oct. 23 | RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) 1,301 likely voters |
R+0.7 | R+2.4 | · | · |
| Oct. 21 | Global Strategy Group for Holscher campaign 600 likely voters |
· | Tie | · | · |
| Oct. 17 | Free State Research (ours, wave 2) 958 likely voters |
D+5.1 | D+2.7 | D+5.1 | · |
| Oct. 16 | Kansas Speaks (Fort Hays State) 506 registered voters · released after the vote, not in the average |
· | D+2.2 | · | · |
| Oct. 15 | Global Strategy Group for Democratic Attorneys General Association 800 likely voters |
· | · | D+4 | · |
| Oct. 14 | InsiderAdvantage 1,200 likely voters |
R+1 | · | · | · |
| Oct. 10 | InsiderAdvantage 1,200 likely voters |
D+0.8 | · | · | · |
| Oct. 10 | Free State Research (ours, wave 1) 564 likely voters |
D+6.8 | R+0.1 | D+5.7 | · |
| Oct. 4 | GBAO for Hamilton campaign 600 likely voters |
D+5 | · | · | · |
| Oct. 4 | YouGov 2,255 likely voters |
D+3 | R+3 | · | · |
| Oct. 1 | Trafalgar Group 1,095 likely voters |
D+0.9 | · | · | · |
| Oct. 1 | Global Strategy Group for Democratic Attorneys General Association 800 likely voters |
· | · | D+4 | · |
| Sept. 30 | New York Times/Siena 605 likely voters |
Tie | R+5 | · | · |
| Sept. 16 | Emerson College for Nexstar Media 750 likely voters |
D+1.5 | R+7.3 | · | · |
| Sept. 16 | Global Strategy Group for Democratic Attorneys General Association 800 likely voters |
D+4 | D+3 | D+1 | · |
| Sept. 10 | co/efficient 915 likely voters |
R+5 | R+8 | · | · |
| Sept. 1 | Public Policy Polling for Day campaign 542 registered voters |
· | · | · | R+2 |
The average takes each pollster's most recent poll that finished in the 3 weeks before Election Day, weighted equally; a firm polling for different sponsors counts once per sponsor, and a race needs two polls for an average. Margins are the Democrat minus the Republican, in points, as each pollster published them. The 7 polls marked "for" were paid for by a campaign, party group or super PAC and appear only for the races their sponsor released; "independent" leaves them out. Our own 3 tracking surveys (Free State Research, shaded) are weighted to an electorate of 51.6% Republicans, 31.6% Democrats and 16.8% unaffiliated, the mix the early vote points to; full releases on request. Our forecast takes turnout from the early vote (ballots well ahead of 2022 at the same point, about half of the gain counted as new voters) and the shares from the public polls and our own surveys, shaded toward Republicans because Kansas's final polls in 2022 ran Democratic; vote totals use each race's 2022 share of ballots cast. The Attorney General range comes from turnout alone: the 2022 Mann–Kobach vote by party registration, replayed on this year’s electorate, is about even if Election Day Republicans close most of the early vote’s gap, and Mann +2 or better if the electorate is as Democratic as the early vote points to. A forecast, not a result.
The top stories, what Kansas is searching, and the map that ties them together: what a tank of gas and a week of groceries cost, who is cutting jobs, and how party registration is moving. Then the odds and the polls. Rebuilt every hour. Kansas for now.
| HIGH | News Adam Hamilton · 4 storys ssj: FEC complaint filed against dark money group that helped bankroll campaign for Hamilton U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Adam Hamiltonunattributed |
posted 11/09 16:49 CT latest item → |
| HIGH | News Kansas Republican Party · 1 story Bing News: Trump nominates Jeff Colyer for ambassadorship after snub in Kansas GOP primary Kansas Governorre Ty Mastersonred |
posted 11/09 21:53 CT latest item → |
| HIGH | News Ty Masterson · 1 story Bing News: Trump Taps Jeff Colyer for UAE Ambassador After His Kansas Governor Bid Fizzled Kansas Governorre Ty Mastersonunattributed |
posted 11/10 09:40 CT latest item → |
| MED | News Cindy Holscher · 22 storys Bing News: Cindy Holscher defeated Ty Masterson and two other candidates in the general election for governor of Kansas Kansas Governorre Cindy Holscherunattributed |
posted 11/14 20:56 CT latest item → |
| MED | News Adam Hamilton · 15 storys reflector: Opinion: Will a new farm bill arrive in Kansas farmers’ stockings this holiday season? Don’t count on it. U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Adam Hamiltonunattributed |
posted 11/12 03:33 CT latest item → |
| LOW | News Cindy Holscher · 105 storys Bing News: School funding got Cindy Holscher into Kansas politics. It may be her first big fight Kansas Governorre Cindy Holscherunattributed |
posted 11/14 15:00 CT latest item → |
| LOW | News Adam Hamilton · 11 storys Bing News: Kansas voters break long streak in historic election | Opinion U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Adam Hamiltonunattributed |
posted 11/14 20:04 CT latest item → |
| LOW | News MSNOW · 8 broadcasts On air (MSNOW): The Briefing With Jen Psaki : MSNOW : November 12, 2026 6:00pm-7:00pm PST U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshallblue |
posted 11/12 18:00 CT latest item → |
| LOW | News Roger Marshall · 6 storys Bing News: Isaiah Marshall and Kansas stun West Virginia at home U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Roger Marshallunattributed |
posted 11/14 11:22 CT latest item → |
| LOW | News CNNW · 4 broadcasts On air (CNNW): Fareed Zakaria GPS : CNNW : November 15, 2026 7:00am-8:00am PST U.S. Senate (Kansas)re Adam Hamiltonblue |
posted 11/14 18:00 CT latest item → |
Google Trends for the watched names and grievances · read 2026-11-15 23:07 UTC · by market on the Intel map →
| HIGH | Intel Roger Marshall · 3 site changes Site changed: https://marshall.com/ - 1 new page(s) U.S. Senate (Kansas)red |
posted 11/13 06:16 CT latest item → |
| MED | Intel Cindy Holscher · 91 site changes Site changed: https://cindyholscher.com/ - 0 new page(s), title now "offset continued report bully" Kansas Governorblue |
posted 11/14 16:15 CT latest item → |
| MED | Intel unknown · 14 marketss Polymarket: U.S. Senate (Kansas), the other side 52% → 74% in a day U.S. Senate (Kansas)red |
posted 11/13 18:00 CT latest item → |
| MED | Intel Cindy Holscher · 5 attention signals Wikipedia attention spike: Cindy Holscher 15,524 views on 2026-11-13 (8x normal) Kansas Governorre Cindy Holscherblue |
posted 11/12 18:00 CT latest item → |
| MED | Intel Adam Hamilton · 3 site changes Site changed: https://hamilton.net/ - 1 new page(s) U.S. Senate (Kansas)blue |
posted 11/11 17:22 CT latest item → |
| MED | Intel Roger Marshall · 1 site change Site changed: https://marshall.com/ - 0 new page(s) U.S. Senate (Kansas)red |
posted 11/14 04:18 CT latest item → |
| LOW | Intel Cindy Holscher · 31 appearancess Cindy Holscher on Cindy Holscher Prioritizes School Funding | Kansas City News · Kansas City News Today | 2 Kansas Governorre Cindy Holscherblue |
runs 11/10 posted 11/14 18:00 CT latest item → |
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| 0.15× |
One line per name from several public sources, each scaled to its own fortnight and averaged: a shape and a momentum, never a level · read 2026-11-15 22:09 UTC · the sources and the markets on the Intel map →
Shaded by search for gas prices, 1.1× the week before. Highest in Joplin-Pittsburg.
| race | blue | 7 days | by market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | 99% | 0 | PredictIt 99 |
| Senate (Kansas) | 15% | -19 | Kalshi 21 · Polymarket 8 |
| Secretary of State | 1% | 0 | Kalshi 1 |
US Senate control: D 100 · R 0 · US House control: D 100 · R 0 (Polymarket)
Every price, and how they moved → · read 2026-11-14 22:07 UTC
Preston B. Plumb of Emporia went to the U.S. Senate in 1877 after making his name as a Free State printer during the territorial fights. Kansas has always promoted its newspapermen, right up until they start covering it.